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How many copies did Matching Cats sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$692–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 51 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Matching Cats and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Matching Cats's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 480–390k
best case 5.8M (Stray)
Games like Matching Cats

A typical game among these

≈ 480–390k copies

≈ $1k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~94 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Stray at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 17 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 69k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and Trading Card Game (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cats + Cyberpunk, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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205x vs typical
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1902x vs typical
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StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
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Est. revenue
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ClickerIdler

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