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How many copies did Witch Explorer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$9k–$23k after Steam's cut $16k–$35k before Steam's cut
from 180 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Witch Explorer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Witch Explorer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 49k–1.8M
best case 22.4M (Tomb Raider Game of the Year)
Games like Witch Explorer

A typical game among these

≈ 49k–1.8M copies

≈ $313k–$44.8M after Steam's cut

from ~18k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Tomb Raider Game of the Year at ≈ 17.1M–27.8M copies, ≈ $94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 820 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Female Protagonist (8 of 8) and Shooter (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Female Protagonist + Third Person, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
wonShot
2020
Est. copies
≈ 719–1k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$196–$527 after Steam's cut $356–$810 before Steam's cut
$0.99
29 reviews
Positive
Shoot 'Em UpTop-Down Shooter
Bright Memory: Infinite
2021
Est. copies
≈ 990k–1.6M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFemale Protagonist
Tomb Raider Game of the Year
2013
Est. copies
≈ 17.1M–27.8M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
271k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction
Panzer Girls
2022
Est. copies
≈ 769–1k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
31 reviews
Mixed
CasualOn-Rails Shooter
Cavalry Girls
2023
Est. copies
≈ 50k–81k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$164k–$441k after Steam's cut $298k–$678k before Steam's cut
$11.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Top-Down ShooterMechs
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls
2021
Est. copies
≈ 80k–130k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$175k–$472k after Steam's cut $319k–$726k before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeAction Roguelike
Bright Memory
2020
Est. copies
≈ 821k–1.3M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
$7.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
Female ProtagonistFPS

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