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How many copies did Master Forge sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 66 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Master Forge and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Master Forge's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–3.1M
best case 4.6M (Crusader Kings III)
Games like Master Forge

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–3.1M copies

≈ $11.2M–$30.1M after Steam's cut

from ~44k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Crusader Kings III at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 44k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Management (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Grand Strategy, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kingdoms and Castles
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
Banished
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.3M–$35.9M after Steam's cut $24.3M–$55.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
43k reviews
Very Positive
Manor Lords
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$68.1M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
93k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
Crusader Kings III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
143k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyMedieval
Foundation
2025
Est. copies
≈ 608k–988k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.7M after Steam's cut $10.6M–$24.2M before Steam's cut
$34.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Dwarf Fortress
2022
Est. copies
≈ 783k–1.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
Graveyard Keeper
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$38.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsCrafting
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
CraftingSingleplayer

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