How much revenue did Cut make?

Cut is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How many copies did Cut sell?

Q: How many copies did Cut sell?

44k to 72k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 44k–72k; from 2k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cut and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cut's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–2.1M

best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)

Games like Cut

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–2.1M copies

≈ $3.1M–$7.3M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is 2D Fighter (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 57 to 42k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share 2D Fighter (3 of 8) and Anime (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Metroidvania + Souls-like + Platformer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Volcano Princess 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut	$10.99	49k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Life SimMultiple Endings
Brotato 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.8M 3.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut	$4.99	119k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Bopl Battle 2023	Est. copies ≈ 643k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Multiplayer4 Player Local
Skullgirls 2nd Encore 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $14.1M–$37.8M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$58.1M before Steam's cut	$24.99	32k reviews Very Positive	Fighting2D Fighter
Hollow Knight 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.5M–31.6M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	566k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like
Draw & Guess 2021	Est. copies ≈ 874k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut	$4.99	35k reviews Very Positive	PartyMultiplayer
Night in the Woods 2017	Est. copies ≈ 699k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	20k reviews Very Positive	Story RichAdventure
Your Only Move Is HUSTLE 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut	$4.99	46k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	2D FighterTurn-Based Strategy