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How many copies did Wandering Sword sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut
from 46k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Wandering Sword and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wandering Sword's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 103k–143k
best case 804k (Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion)
Games like Wandering Sword

A typical game among these

≈ 103k–143k copies

≈ $298k–$917k after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion at ≈ 613k–996k copies, ≈ $3.0M–$8.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 773 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Martial Arts (5 of 8) and Story Rich (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Martial Arts + Open World, priced around $18. The breakout hits carry Open World + Strategy + Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy 100k–200k
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$628k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
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The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle
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Est. copies
≈ 120k–196k
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Mixed
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Cultivation Story: Reincarnation
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SteamSpy 100k–200k
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RPGAction Roguelike
The friends of Ringo Ishikawa
2018
Est. copies
≈ 97k–157k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$399k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $725k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
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Xuan-Yuan Sword: The Scar of Sky
2021
Est. copies
≈ 66k–107k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$181k–$487k after Steam's cut $329k–$749k before Steam's cut
$9.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion
2023
Est. copies
≈ 613k–996k
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.2M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut
$17.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMartial Arts

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