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How many copies did PEPPERED: an existential platformer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 18k–29k
$73k–$197k after Steam's cut $133k–$304k before Steam's cut
from 718 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PEPPERED: an existential platformer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PEPPERED: an existential platformer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.9M–10.1M
best case 22.0M (Undertale)
Games like PEPPERED: an existential platformer

A typical game among these

≈ 6.9M–10.1M copies

≈ $53.6M–$97.5M after Steam's cut

from ~264k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Precision Platformer (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Undertale at ≈ 16.8M–27.2M copies, ≈ $46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 508 reviews in their first month; the range was 31 to 42k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Precision Platformer (4 of 8) and Story Rich (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Undertale
2015
Est. copies
≈ 16.8M–27.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$46.0M–$123.8M after Steam's cut $83.7M–$190.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
343k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackStory Rich
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut $52.9M–$120.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Very Positive
StealthOpen World
Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.7M–12.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
310k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Hans
2023
Est. copies
≈ 20k–32k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$27k–$73k after Steam's cut $49k–$112k before Steam's cut
$4.99
794 reviews
Very Positive
99 Fails Lite
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65 reviews
Very Positive
Precision PlatformerSide Scroller
Driving Is Hard
2025
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before Steam's cut
$6.99
263 reviews
Very Positive

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