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How many copies did Kamifuda sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–6k
$10k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$43k before Steam's cut
from 139 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Kamifuda and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kamifuda's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.9M–5.2M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Kamifuda

A typical game among these

≈ 1.9M–5.2M copies

≈ $8.6M–$62.3M after Steam's cut

from ~69k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Visual Novel (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelHistorical
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Love Is All Around
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
Dating SimSexual Content
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.0M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
132k reviews
Very Positive
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
Everlasting Summer
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
78k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.