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How many copies did Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 56k–92k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 437k–7.0M
best case 27.3M (The Forest)
Games like Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key

A typical game among these

≈ 437k–7.0M copies

≈ $7.7M–$80.5M after Steam's cut

from ~32k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 92k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Fantasy (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.9M–$45.4M after Steam's cut $30.7M–$69.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
2025
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.3M
8.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut $173.2M–$394.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
279k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based CombatStory Rich
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
86k reviews
Very Positive
MMORPGRPG
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE
2018
Est. copies
≈ 313k–509k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.6M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 235k–382k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelEmotional
Sea of Stars: Sunset Edition
2023
Est. copies
≈ 390k–634k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsJRPG
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom
2018
Est. copies
≈ 339k–552k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before Steam's cut
$79.98
11k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG

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