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How many copies did Chess Pills sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 45 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chess Pills and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chess Pills's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–2.9M
best case 3.4M (Dota Underlords)
Games like Chess Pills

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–2.9M copies

≈ $1.4M–$9.5M after Steam's cut

from ~44k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dota Underlords at ≈ 2.6M–4.3M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 925 reviews in their first month; the range was 29 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Board Game (6 of 8) and Card Game (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Auto Battler + Tactical.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Test
2020
Est. copies
≈ 499k–810k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$273k–$734k after Steam's cut $496k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$1.99
20k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureSimulation
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel
2020
Est. copies
≈ 223k–362k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$735k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$11.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ChessTime Travel
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
100% Orange Juice
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before Steam's cut
$6.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeBoard Game
Dota Underlords
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
91k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayStrategy
Tabletop Simulator
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.0M–$53.8M after Steam's cut $36.4M–$82.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
75k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
TabletopBoard Game
BOT.vinnik Chess: Combination Lessons
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$1.99
128 reviews
Very Positive
FPS Chess
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
44k reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP

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