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How many copies did New Citizen - Alpha sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid New Citizen - Alpha and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including New Citizen - Alpha's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 716–13k
best case 183k (江湖十一)
Games like New Citizen - Alpha

A typical game among these

≈ 716–13k copies

≈ $3k–$56k after Steam's cut

from ~76 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: 江湖十一 at ≈ 139k–226k copies, ≈ $689k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 27 reviews in their first month; the range was 4 to 5k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (6 of 8) and Immersive Sim (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $18.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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AdventureSimulation

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.