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How many copies did Bicycle Challenge - Wastelands sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 843–1k
$46k–$125k after Steam's cut $84k–$192k before Steam's cut
from 34 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bicycle Challenge - Wastelands and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bicycle Challenge - Wastelands's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 114–464
best case 749 (Supreme Race on Highway)
Games like Bicycle Challenge - Wastelands

A typical game among these

≈ 114–464 copies

≈ $113–$28k after Steam's cut

from ~9 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Supreme Race on Highway at ≈ 570–927 copies, ≈ $31k–$84k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 11 reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (7 of 8) and Automobile Sim (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $200.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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