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How many copies did Red Matter 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 18k–29k
$145k–$389k after Steam's cut $263k–$599k before Steam's cut
from 708 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Red Matter 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Red Matter 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 23k–117k
best case 669k (BONELAB)
Games like Red Matter 2

A typical game among these

≈ 23k–117k copies

≈ $144k–$672k after Steam's cut

from ~783 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: BONELAB at ≈ 509k–828k copies, ≈ $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 552 reviews in their first month; the range was 95 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share VR (6 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Physics, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Physics + Sandbox + Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Moss VR
2018
Est. copies
≈ 105k–170k
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$577k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRAdventure
Time Lock VR 1
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26k–42k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$93k–$250k after Steam's cut $169k–$385k before Steam's cut
$12.99
757 reviews
Mostly Positive
PuzzleHidden Object
Kairo
2013
Est. copies
≈ 111k–180k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$152k–$409k after Steam's cut $277k–$630k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
PuzzleExploration
BONELAB
2022
Est. copies
≈ 509k–828k
26x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
Moss II VR
2022
Est. copies
≈ 19k–32k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$107k–$287k after Steam's cut $194k–$442k before Steam's cut
$19.99
783 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationPuzzle-Platformer
The Midnight Walk
2025
Est. copies
≈ 73k–118k
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$601k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Eye of the Temple
2021
Est. copies
≈ 11k–17k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$58k–$157k after Steam's cut $106k–$241k before Steam's cut
$19.99
428 reviews
Very Positive
VRAdventure
Budget Cuts 2: Mission Insolvency
2019
Est. copies
≈ 15k–25k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$64k–$171k after Steam's cut $116k–$263k before Steam's cut
$14.99
536 reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction

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