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How many copies did Kalinur sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$28k before Steam's cut
from 500 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Kalinur and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kalinur's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–4.1M
best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Kalinur

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–4.1M copies

≈ $8.4M–$39.8M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 23k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Metroidvania (7 of 8) and Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ANIMAL WELL
2024
Est. copies
≈ 612k–995k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaExploration
Pseudoregalia
2023
Est. copies
≈ 473k–769k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$779k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$5.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerMetroidvania
Rogue Legacy
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
RoguevaniaPlatformer
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
42k reviews
Very Positive
Ori and the Blind Forest
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackAtmospheric
Dust: An Elysian Tail
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionPlatformer

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