How much revenue did Spear Song make?

$19k–$52k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Spear Song sell?

Q: How many copies did Spear Song sell?

5k to 8k copies, based on its 190 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 5k–8k; $19k–$52k after Steam's cut $35k–$80k before Steam's cut; from 190 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Spear Song and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Spear Song's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–9.9M

best case 20.7M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)

Games like Spear Song

A typical game among these

≈ 2.9M–9.9M copies

≈ $25.8M–$143.9M after Steam's cut

from ~63k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies, ≈ $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (8 of 8) and Historical (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010	Est. copies ≈ 13.3M–21.7M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut $199.9M–$454.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	211k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
RISK: Global Domination 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	42k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.7M 6.0x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	380k reviews Very Positive	StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012	Est. copies ≈ 3.7M–6.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	59k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based StrategyTactical
Total War: ATTILA 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.1M–$27.3M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	38k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition 2006	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.7M–$34.1M after Steam's cut $23.1M–$52.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	37k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StrategyMedieval
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	88k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical
Total War: SHOGUN 2 2011	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $35.4M–$95.2M after Steam's cut $64.4M–$146.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	68k reviews Very Positive	StrategyHistorical