How much revenue did the Shadow of Swallow make?

$953–$3k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did the Shadow of Swallow sell?

Q: How many copies did the Shadow of Swallow sell?

868 to 1k copies, based on its 35 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 868–1k; $953–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut; from 35 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid the Shadow of Swallow and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including the Shadow of Swallow's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98k–257k

best case 262k (Melody's Escape)

Games like the Shadow of Swallow

A typical game among these

≈ 98k–257k copies

≈ $282k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Melody's Escape at ≈ 200k–325k copies, ≈ $549k–$1.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 435 to 2k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Runner (8 of 8) and Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Music-Based Procedural Generation + Rhythm, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Soda Crisis 2022	Est. copies ≈ 80k–130k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $242k–$650k after Steam's cut $440k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$10.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Side ScrollerRunner
Vector 2013	Est. copies ≈ 89k–144k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $170k–$458k after Steam's cut $310k–$705k before Steam's cut	$6.99	1k reviews Very Positive	ParkourAction
Hextech Mayhem: A League of Legends Story™ 2021	Est. copies ≈ 58k–95k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $160k–$430k after Steam's cut $291k–$661k before Steam's cut	$9.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	MusicRhythm
BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien 2013	Est. copies ≈ 195k–316k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $802k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Rhythm Platformer
BIT.TRIP RUNNER 2011	Est. copies ≈ 250k–406k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $686k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Rhythm Platformer
Super Meat Boy Forever 2022	Est. copies ≈ 55k–89k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $75k–$201k after Steam's cut $136k–$309k before Steam's cut	$4.99	2k reviews Mixed	IndieAction
Dino Run DX 2015	Est. copies ≈ 80k–130k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $131k–$353k after Steam's cut $239k–$543k before Steam's cut	$5.99	2k reviews Very Positive	DinosaursPixel Graphics
Melody's Escape 2016	Est. copies ≈ 200k–325k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $549k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $998k–$2.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	5k reviews Very Positive	Music-Based Procedural GenerationRhythm