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How many copies did Thief II: The Metal Age sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 136k–220k
$261k–$701k after Steam's cut $474k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thief II: The Metal Age and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thief II: The Metal Age's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 160k–283k
best case 7.3M (Dishonored)
Games like Thief II: The Metal Age

A typical game among these

≈ 160k–283k copies

≈ $516k–$849k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Dishonored at ≈ 5.6M–9.1M copies, ≈ $15.3M–$41.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Stealth (6 of 8) and First-Person (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Stealth + First-Person, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Assassin; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2016, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Thief Gold (1999)
2012
Est. copies
≈ 266k–432k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$511k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $929k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$6.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
StealthClassic
Dishonored
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
34x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.3M after Steam's cut $27.9M–$63.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StealthFirst-Person
Thief: Deadly Shadows
2007
Est. copies
≈ 166k–269k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$409k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $744k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
$8.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAtmospheric
Assassin's Creed 2
2010
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.5M after Steam's cut $38.9M–$88.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
62k reviews
Very Positive
ActionOpen World
BioShock™
2007
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$11.2M–$30.1M after Steam's cut $20.4M–$46.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAtmospheric
Blood Omen 2: Legacy of Kain
2013
Est. copies
≈ 78k–127k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$150k–$403k after Steam's cut $273k–$621k before Steam's cut
$6.99
1k reviews
Mixed
ActionVampire
Dishonored 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
26x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
StealthFirst-Person
Assassin's Creed® Syndicate
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.4M–$35.9M after Steam's cut $24.3M–$55.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
AssassinOpen World

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