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How many copies did Madshot: Road to Madness sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 57 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Madshot: Road to Madness and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Madshot: Road to Madness's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–12.2M
best case 31.8M (Dying Light)
Games like Madshot: Road to Madness

A typical game among these

≈ 4.6M–12.2M copies

≈ $61.1M–$257.4M after Steam's cut

from ~103k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dying Light at ≈ 24.2M–39.3M copies, ≈ $166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Survival Horror, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
496k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Dirty Bomb®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
57k reviews
Very Positive
Hero ShooterFree to Play
Titanfall® 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.6M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$58.7M–$158.0M after Steam's cut $106.8M–$243.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
287k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSMechs
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–501k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.8M–$35.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.6M–$66.2M after Steam's cut $44.7M–$101.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
80k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Watch_Dogs® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.1M–$158.9M after Steam's cut $107.5M–$244.4M before Steam's cut
$49.99
103k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldHacking
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11.4M–18.6M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$188.7M–$507.3M after Steam's cut $343.1M–$780.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
234k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerZombies

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