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How many copies did Last Kids on Earth: Hit the Deck! sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 446–725
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$8k before Steam's cut
from 18 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Last Kids on Earth: Hit the Deck! and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Last Kids on Earth: Hit the Deck!'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 23k–158k
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Last Kids on Earth: Hit the Deck!

A typical game among these

≈ 23k–158k copies

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 336 reviews in their first month; the range was 155 to 416.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Battler (7 of 8) and Turn-Based Tactics (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics. The breakout hits carry Stylized + Multiplayer + PvE; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Early AccessTurn-Based Tactics
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PvETrading Card Game
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Stormbound
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