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How many copies did Escape From Lavender Island sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–9k
$15k–$40k after Steam's cut $27k–$62k before Steam's cut
from 221 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Escape From Lavender Island and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Escape From Lavender Island's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 489–1k
best case 27.5M (Fallout 4)
Games like Escape From Lavender Island

A typical game among these

≈ 489–1k copies

≈ $376–$3k after Steam's cut

from ~27 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 21.0M–34.1M copies, ≈ $115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 625.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (8 of 8) and Open World (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Adventure + RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
15904x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
15612x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
The Ghosts of Hackney Mills
2017
Est. copies
≈ 929–2k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
$3.99
27 reviews
Mixed
HorrorInvestigation
灵墟
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25k–40k
37x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$75k–$200k after Steam's cut $135k–$308k before Steam's cut
$10.99
994 reviews
Very Positive
IndieExploration
Mushroom Picker Simulator
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$3.99
61 reviews
Mixed
CasualEducation
BlooDooMooN SurViVoR
2023
Est. copies
≈ 372–605
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$204–$548 after Steam's cut $370–$843 before Steam's cut
$1.99
15 reviews
Mixed
ExplorationOpen World
Exhale XR | VR Wellness
2022
Est. copies
≈ 174–282
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$191–$512 after Steam's cut $347–$788 before Steam's cut
$3.99
7 reviews
7 user reviews
RelaxingVR
Wildstrive
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$7.99
41 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessOpen World

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