How much revenue did Heretic's Fork make?

$281k–$755k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Heretic's Fork sell?

Q: How many copies did Heretic's Fork sell?

102k to 166k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 102k–166k; $281k–$755k after Steam's cut $511k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heretic's Fork and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heretic's Fork's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.0M–4.5M

best case 6.5M (Balatro)

Games like Heretic's Fork

A typical game among these

≈ 2.0M–4.5M copies

≈ $12.0M–$29.2M after Steam's cut

from ~65k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Rogue-lite (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Balatro at ≈ 5.0M–8.1M copies, ≈ $20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 7 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 21k.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Rogue-lite (4 of 8) and Tower Defense (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
WORLD OF ART JIGSAW PUZZLES 2020	Est. copies ≈ 4k–6k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $12k–$32k after Steam's cut $22k–$49k before Steam's cut	$10.99	158 reviews Very Positive	PuzzleRelaxing
Minion Masters 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	65k reviews Very Positive	PvETrading Card Game
ROUNDS 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut	$5.99	45k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MultiplayerFighting
Dungeon Rebound 2023	Est. copies ≈ 347–564 too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $95–$254 after Steam's cut $172–$391 before Steam's cut	$0.99	14 reviews Mostly Negative	Bullet Hell Rogue-lite
Emoji Shooter 2025	Est. copies ≈ 645–1k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut	$6.99	26 reviews Positive	MemesStrategy
PLANTOONS 2024	Est. copies ≈ 198–322 too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $108–$292 after Steam's cut $197–$449 before Steam's cut	$1.99	8 reviews 8 user reviews	CasualTower Defense
Balatro 2024	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut $37.2M–$84.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	200k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Card GameRoguelike Deckbuilder
Star Defence 2023	Est. copies ≈ 25–40 too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $7–$18 after Steam's cut $12–$28 before Steam's cut	$0.99	1 reviews 1 user reviews	Tower DefenseReal Time Tactics