How much revenue did Lucius make?

$4.7M–$12.8M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lucius sell?

Q: How many copies did Lucius sell?

691k to 1.1M copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 691k–1.1M; $4.7M–$12.8M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut; from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lucius and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lucius's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 829k–1.1M

best case 2.3M (NBA 2K20)

Games like Lucius

A typical game among these

≈ 829k–1.1M copies

≈ $7.0M–$9.6M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Villain Protagonist (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NBA 2K20 at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 15k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Villain Protagonist (4 of 8) and Gore (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Basketball + Sports, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Basketball + Sports; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
NBA 2K20 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	60k reviews Mixed	BasketballSports
Dungeons 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 644k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyVillain Protagonist
Hatred 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.5M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.0M before Steam's cut	$5.99	30k reviews Very Positive	GoreViolent
Untitled Goose Game 2020	Est. copies ≈ 627k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	25k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyVillain Protagonist
Maneater 2021	Est. copies ≈ 669k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.4M before Steam's cut	$39.99	27k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldDark Humor
CARRION 2020	Est. copies ≈ 895k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Villain ProtagonistPixel Graphics
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022	Est. copies ≈ 574k–933k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	23k reviews Mostly Positive	SimulationCrime
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	58k reviews Very Positive	IndieAction