How much revenue did Untitled Goose Game make?

$3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Untitled Goose Game sell?

Q: How many copies did Untitled Goose Game sell?

627k to 1.0M copies, based on its 25k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 627k–1.0M; $3.4M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut; from 25k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Untitled Goose Game and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Untitled Goose Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 476k–838k

best case 2.3M (NBA 2K20)

Games like Untitled Goose Game

A typical game among these

≈ 476k–838k copies

≈ $4.0M–$6.7M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: NBA 2K20 at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Villain Protagonist (5 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Basketball + Sports. The breakout hits carry Basketball + Sports + Loot; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 1997 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
NBA 2K20 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M 4.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	60k reviews Mixed	BasketballSports
Garfield Kart - Furious Racing 2019	Est. copies ≈ 435k–707k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	15k reviews Very Positive	Cult ClassicRacing
POSTAL 1997	Est. copies ≈ 916k–1.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	14k reviews Very Positive	HorrorVillain Protagonist
LEGO® City Undercover 2017	Est. copies ≈ 397k–645k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.2M–$5.9M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	12k reviews Very Positive	LEGOOpen World
Destroy All Humans! 2020	Est. copies ≈ 285k–464k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	12k reviews Very Positive	ActionAdventure
Dungeons 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 644k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyVillain Protagonist
Evil Genius 2: World Domination 2021	Est. copies ≈ 329k–534k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$15.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	13k reviews Mixed	StrategyBase-Building
Grimm 2014	Est. copies ≈ 632k–1.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	11k reviews Very Positive	IndieFree to Play