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How many copies did ALTF42 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$31k–$84k after Steam's cut $57k–$130k before Steam's cut
from 575 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ALTF42 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ALTF42's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–2.2M
best case 5.0M (Totally Accurate Battle Simulator)
Games like ALTF42

A typical game among these

≈ 1.7M–2.2M copies

≈ $9.6M–$10.1M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Totally Accurate Battle Simulator at ≈ 3.8M–6.2M copies, ≈ $21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (3 of 8) and Comedy (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + Simulation, priced around $22. The breakout hits carry Funny + Singleplayer + Dark Humor; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
5.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Cult of the Lamb
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.6M after Steam's cut $40.3M–$91.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
130k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingCute
Castle Crashers®
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.9M–14.5M
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.7M–$98.7M after Steam's cut $66.8M–$151.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2DOnline Co-Op
Orcs Must Die! 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
Brutal Legend
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
ActionComedy
Shakes and Fidget
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
37k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayRPG
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$34.0M–$91.4M after Steam's cut $61.8M–$140.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
74k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGComedy
Magicka
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyCo-op

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