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How many copies did Boat Train sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$41–$109 after Steam's cut $74–$168 before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Boat Train and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Boat Train's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 443k–1.1M
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Boat Train

A typical game among these

≈ 443k–1.1M copies

≈ $3.8M–$9.5M after Steam's cut

from ~23k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Fantasy (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (3 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

觅长生
2023
Est. copies
≈ 797k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG
Dwarf Fortress
2022
Est. copies
≈ 783k–1.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.4M after Steam's cut $11.7M–$26.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfColony Sim
Across the Obelisk
2022
Est. copies
≈ 326k–529k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Gloomhaven
2021
Est. copies
≈ 400k–650k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 341k–555k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer
Backpack Hero
2023
Est. copies
≈ 212k–344k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Replay ValueTurn-Based

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