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How many copies did Black Dragon Mage sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–7k
$8k–$20k after Steam's cut $14k–$31k before Steam's cut
from 184 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Black Dragon Mage and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Black Dragon Mage's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32k–376k
best case 3.5M (Hero Siege)
Games like Black Dragon Mage

A typical game among these

≈ 32k–376k copies

≈ $106k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hero Siege at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 681 reviews in their first month; the range was 330 to 23k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (8 of 8) and Action RPG (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Hack and Slash, priced around $8.
When they shipped
6 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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3.2x vs typical
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