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How many copies did Physical Layer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $9k–$20k before Steam's cut
from 78 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Physical Layer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Physical Layer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 34k–41k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like Physical Layer

A typical game among these

≈ 34k–41k copies

≈ $190k–$343k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 63 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 731.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (8 of 8) and Shooter (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Precision Platformer + Difficult + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
132x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The Shadow of Yidhra
2021
Est. copies
≈ 35k–57k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$105k–$283k after Steam's cut $191k–$436k before Steam's cut
$10.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
ActionRPG
Contra: Operation Galuga
2024
Est. copies
≈ 24k–39k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$267k–$718k after Steam's cut $485k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
979 reviews
Very Positive
ActionArcade
Nitro Express
2025
Est. copies
≈ 28k–46k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$100k–$270k after Steam's cut $182k–$415k before Steam's cut
$12.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
Side Scroller2D Platformer
Gunborg: Dark Matters
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before Steam's cut
$9.99
76 reviews
Very Positive
Side Scroller2D Platformer
Spidersaurs
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$50k before Steam's cut
$19.99
89 reviews
Mostly Positive
Precision Platformer2D Platformer
Chaotic Loop
2022
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
17 reviews
Positive
Side Scroller2D Platformer
Haneda Girl
2025
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut
$14.99
97 reviews
Very Positive
ActionShooter

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