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How many copies did Cat Quest III sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 107k–173k
$586k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cat Quest III and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cat Quest III's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 663k–2.9M
best case 5.8M (Stray)
Games like Cat Quest III

A typical game among these

≈ 663k–2.9M copies

≈ $2.8M–$20.7M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Anime (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Stray at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Anime (3 of 8) and Dating Sim (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cats + Cyberpunk, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Desperados III
2020
Est. copies
≈ 413k–671k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
17k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Real Time TacticsStrategy
BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NEKOPARA Vol. 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 414k–672k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiSexual Content
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure
Cat Goes Fishing
2015
Est. copies
≈ 808k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$6.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
FishingCats
NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–870k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
Nine Sols
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.0M–$38.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
NEKOPARA Vol. 1
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiAnime

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