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How many copies did Usurper sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 49 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Usurper and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Usurper's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–508k
best case 3.4M (Dota Underlords)
Games like Usurper

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–508k copies

≈ $11k–$2.3M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dota Underlords at ≈ 2.6M–4.3M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 130 reviews in their first month; the range was 13 to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (6 of 8) and Chess (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Auto Battler + Tactical.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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