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How many copies did Dice Assassin sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–4k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
from 103 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dice Assassin and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dice Assassin's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 65k–84k
best case 2.5M (Minion Masters)
Games like Dice Assassin

A typical game among these

≈ 65k–84k copies

≈ $333k–$474k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Minion Masters at ≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 998 to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (5 of 8) and Auto Battler (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Auto Battler + Inventory Management, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry PvP + Multiplayer + Early Access; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
6 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Singleplayer2D

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