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How many copies did Materialization of memories sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
from 44 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Materialization of memories and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Materialization of memories's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9.2M–13.3M
best case 51.1M (Dead by Daylight)
Games like Materialization of memories

A typical game among these

≈ 9.2M–13.3M copies

≈ $65.0M–$111.2M after Steam's cut

from ~252k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dead by Daylight at ≈ 39.0M–63.3M copies, ≈ $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the range was 35k to 55k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (6 of 8) and Horror (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Content Warning
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$7.99
164k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Resident Evil Village
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
155k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dead by Daylight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 39.0M–63.3M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
937k reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$66.3M–$178.3M after Steam's cut $120.6M–$274.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
279k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
511k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.