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How many copies did Molten Horn sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$205–$549 after Steam's cut $372–$845 before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Molten Horn and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Molten Horn's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–5.7M
best case 6.0M (XCOM® 2)
Games like Molten Horn

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–5.7M copies

≈ $22.4M–$60.6M after Steam's cut

from ~63k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: XCOM® 2 at ≈ 4.6M–7.4M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Strategy (7 of 8) and Tactical (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Isometric + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Total War: SHOGUN 2
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
BATTLETECH
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.1M–$29.9M after Steam's cut $20.2M–$46.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
MechsStrategy
RISK: Global Domination
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
42k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
Total War: SHOGUN 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$35.4M–$95.2M after Steam's cut $64.4M–$146.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
IsometricTurn-Based Combat
Battle Brothers
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRPG

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