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How many copies did Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 770k–1.3M
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
from 12k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.9M–7.1M
best case 12.1M (DOOM)
Games like Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs

A typical game among these

≈ 3.9M–7.1M copies

≈ $40.2M–$55.2M after Steam's cut

from ~100k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: DOOM at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies, ≈ $50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (4 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Gore, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry FPS + Shooter + Great Soundtrack; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$71.3M–$191.8M after Steam's cut $129.7M–$295.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.8M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$25.8M before Steam's cut
$7.99
83k reviews
Very Positive
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.4M–$98.0M after Steam's cut $66.3M–$150.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
140k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
The Long Dark
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–6.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
124k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.7M–$58.5M after Steam's cut $39.5M–$90.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
77k reviews
Very Positive
AtmosphericPsychological

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