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How many copies did Octavio Camacho sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25–40
$62–$164 after Steam's cut $112–$252 before Steam's cut
from 1 review (1 user reviews)
Only 1 review so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Octavio Camacho and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Octavio Camacho's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98–220
best case 9k (Path of the Midnight Sun)
Games like Octavio Camacho

A typical game among these

≈ 98–220 copies

≈ $189–$453 after Steam's cut

from ~5 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Path of the Midnight Sun at ≈ 7k–11k copies, ≈ $36k–$97k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 194.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share JRPG (5 of 8) and Tactical RPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Visual Novel + Atmospheric + Anime; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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