How much revenue did Ceiba make?

$13k–$35k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Ceiba sell?

Q: How many copies did Ceiba sell?

7k to 11k copies, based on its 276 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 7k–11k; $13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut; from 276 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ceiba and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ceiba's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 554–2k

best case 1.1M (Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut)

Games like Ceiba

A typical game among these

≈ 554–2k copies

≈ $2k–$10k after Steam's cut

from ~22 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut at ≈ 856k–1.4M copies, ≈ $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 20 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 4k.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sci-fi (6 of 8) and Choose Your Own Adventure (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Choices Matter, priced around $18. The breakout hits carry Psychological Horror + Horror + Choices Matter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023	Est. copies ≈ 856k–1.4M 1570x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut	$17.99	35k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelChoices Matter
Coldage 2022	Est. copies ≈ 223–363 SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $858–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut	$13.99	9 reviews 9 user reviews	Post-apocalypticHand-drawn
Sym.BIOS: Torn Asunder 2023	Est. copies ≈ 546–887 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut	$7.99	22 reviews Positive	Visual NovelChoices Matter
Lightracer Spark 2023	Est. copies ≈ 25k–41k 46x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $90k–$242k after Steam's cut $164k–$373k before Steam's cut	$12.99	1k reviews Very Positive	RPGSci-fi
Songs of Rats 2025	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $5k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut	$14.99	53 reviews Mostly Positive	RPGChoose Your Own Adventure
Fallen Seeds 2024	Est. copies ≈ 2k–4k 4.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $5k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$19k before Steam's cut	$6.99	97 reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelSci-fi
Obreno: Chapter One 2020	Est. copies ≈ 422–685 SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	17 reviews Mostly Positive	Interactive FictionExperimental
我说什么她们都答应（OKeverything） 2024	Est. copies ≈ 422–685 SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut	$9.99	17 reviews Mixed	RomanceRPG