How much revenue did Luma Island make?

$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Luma Island sell?

Q: How many copies did Luma Island sell?

316k to 514k copies, based on its 13k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 316k–514k; $1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut; from 13k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Luma Island and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Luma Island's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–1.7M

best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)

Games like Luma Island

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–1.7M copies

≈ $13.5M–$18.3M after Steam's cut

from ~44k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 43k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Crafting (5 of 8) and Farming Sim (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Fishing + Casual + Exploration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Dinkum 2025	Est. copies ≈ 725k–1.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	29k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftAgriculture
My Time at Portia 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.5M–$28.3M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	44k reviews Very Positive	Life SimRPG
Against the Storm 2023	Est. copies ≈ 934k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	38k reviews Very Positive	StrategyCity Builder
DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.6M 3.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	163k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Forager 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Core Keeper 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	68k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut $20.0M–$45.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	54k reviews Very Positive	EmotionalStory Rich
My Time at Sandrock 2023	Est. copies ≈ 722k–1.2M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.3M after Steam's cut $14.4M–$32.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	29k reviews Very Positive	Life SimBuilding