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How many copies did Forza Motorsport sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 319k–518k
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.4M before Steam's cut
from 13k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Forza Motorsport and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Forza Motorsport's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.6M–19.9M
best case 78.3M (Euro Truck Simulator 2)
Games like Forza Motorsport

A typical game among these

≈ 6.6M–19.9M copies

≈ $59.4M–$248.5M after Steam's cut

from ~282k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Euro Truck Simulator 2 at ≈ 59.7M–97.0M copies, ≈ $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (6 of 7) and Driving (6 of 7).
The winners
Winners here lead with Driving + Transportation, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
CarX Drift Racing Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.4M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.4M before Steam's cut
$16.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingPhysics
Forza Horizon 5
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$115.3M–$310.1M after Steam's cut $209.7M–$477.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
282k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
The Crew™ 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.0M–$67.2M after Steam's cut $45.5M–$103.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
100k reviews
Mostly Positive
RacingOpen World
Forza Horizon 4
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.