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How many copies did New Arc Line sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 20k–32k
$137k–$367k after Steam's cut $248k–$565k before Steam's cut
from 801 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid New Arc Line and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including New Arc Line's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8k–424k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like New Arc Line

A typical game among these

≈ 8k–424k copies

≈ $57k–$6.0M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 10 to 5k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share CRPG (5 of 8) and Steampunk (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Strategy, priced around $45.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.5M
48x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.1M after Steam's cut $159.6M–$363.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
206k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tactical RPGRPG
Age of Grit
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7k–$18k after Steam's cut $12k–$27k before Steam's cut
$14.99
64 reviews
Mostly Positive
SteampunkCRPG
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children
2020
Est. copies
≈ 246k–399k
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGTactical RPG
EMPYRE: Dukes of the Far Frontier
2022
Est. copies
≈ 298–484
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$19.99
12 reviews
Mixed
RPGIsometric
Vaporum
2017
Est. copies
≈ 37k–60k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$202k–$544k after Steam's cut $368k–$836k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
King Arthur: Knight's Tale
2022
Est. copies
≈ 188k–305k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$44.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Wasteland 3
2020
Est. copies
≈ 557k–904k
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CRPGCharacter Customization
Vaporum: Lockdown
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$39k–$106k after Steam's cut $71k–$162k before Steam's cut
$17.99
320 reviews
Very Positive
RPGIndie

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