How much revenue did METAL SLUG 3 make?

$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did METAL SLUG 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did METAL SLUG 3 sell?

514k to 836k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 514k–836k; $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before Steam's cut; from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid METAL SLUG 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including METAL SLUG 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 906k–1.6M

best case 2.4M (Street Fighter V)

Games like METAL SLUG 3

A typical game among these

≈ 906k–1.6M copies

≈ $6.4M–$13.4M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Classic (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Street Fighter V at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Classic (4 of 8) and Fighting (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Fighting + 2D Fighter, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry 2D Fighter + Competitive + e-sports; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Sonic Mania 2017	Est. copies ≈ 995k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	29k reviews Very Positive	Great Soundtrack2D
Quake Live 2014	Est. copies ≈ 890k–1.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut	$9.99	16k reviews Very Positive	FPSArena Shooter
Streets of Rage 4 2020	Est. copies ≈ 490k–797k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut	$24.99	20k reviews Very Positive	ActionBeat 'em up
Call of Duty® 4: Modern Warfare® (2007) 2007	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $9.5M–$25.5M after Steam's cut $17.2M–$39.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	27k reviews Very Positive	FPSAction
FlatOut 2 2006	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	22k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RacingCombat Racing
Mortal Kombat Komplete Edition unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 468k–760k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	19k reviews Very Positive	FightingGore
Ultra Street Fighter® IV 2014	Est. copies ≈ 955k–1.6M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	17k reviews Very Positive	FightingArcade
Street Fighter V 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Mixed	FightingAction