How much revenue did UnderRail make?

$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did UnderRail sell?

Q: How many copies did UnderRail sell?

354k to 576k copies, based on its 7k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 354k–576k; $1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.0M before Steam's cut; from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid UnderRail and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including UnderRail's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–4.6M

best case 40.1M (Project Zomboid)

Games like UnderRail

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–4.6M copies

≈ $11.9M–$39.3M after Steam's cut

from ~38k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Isometric (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Project Zomboid at ≈ 30.5M–49.6M copies, ≈ $209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 55 to 19k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Isometric (3 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Zombies, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Survival + Zombies + Open World Survival Craft; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Against the Storm 2023	Est. copies ≈ 934k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	38k reviews Very Positive	StrategyCity Builder
Grim Dawn 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.4M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $31.4M–$84.5M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	110k reviews Very Positive	Action RPGHack and Slash
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	SingleplayerAction RPG
Project Zomboid 2013	Est. copies ≈ 30.5M–49.6M 13x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut $381.6M–$868.2M before Steam's cut	$24.99	483k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalZombies
Bastion 2011	Est. copies ≈ 2.4M–3.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	38k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Great SoundtrackIndie
Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	25k reviews Very Positive	RPGPost-apocalyptic
XCOM® 2 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.4M 2.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	110k reviews Very Positive	IsometricTurn-Based Combat
POLYGON 2020	Est. copies ≈ 918k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	37k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayFPS