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How many copies did World of Diving sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 43k–70k
from 765 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid World of Diving and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including World of Diving's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–1.5M
best case 12.3M (Raft)
Games like World of Diving

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–1.5M copies

≈ $8.1M–$13.2M after Steam's cut

from ~27k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Raft at ≈ 9.4M–15.3M copies, ≈ $51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 39k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 182k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Underwater (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Co-op + Building + Base-Building; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
379k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
ABZU
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$17.0M after Steam's cut $11.5M–$26.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
RelaxingAtmospheric
Maneater
2021
Est. copies
≈ 669k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$19.8M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldDark Humor
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
6.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Feed and Grow: Fish
2016
Est. copies
≈ 906k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
22k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationUnderwater
Cat Goes Fishing
2015
Est. copies
≈ 808k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before Steam's cut
$6.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
FishingCats
Stranded Deep
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.5M–$17.6M after Steam's cut $11.9M–$27.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
48k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Depth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.3M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$42.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
ShooterMultiplayer

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