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How many copies did StarDrive 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 103k–167k
$846k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid StarDrive 2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including StarDrive 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 131k–1.0M
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like StarDrive 2

A typical game among these

≈ 131k–1.0M copies

≈ $2.1M–$10.7M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 4X (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Grand Strategy, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Master of Orion
2016
Est. copies
≈ 341k–554k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
8k reviews
Mostly Positive
Strategy4X
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.4M after Steam's cut $26.0M–$59.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
23k reviews
Mixed
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Master of Orion 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 73k–119k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$121k–$324k after Steam's cut $219k–$499k before Steam's cut
$5.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Strategy4X
Distant Worlds: Universe
2014
Est. copies
≈ 104k–169k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$857k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Strategy4X
Distant Worlds 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 88k–144k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategySimulation
ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition
2012
Est. copies
≈ 607k–987k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Strategy4X
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
23x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Sins of a Solar Empire II
2024
Est. copies
≈ 218k–354k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.4M–$12.4M before Steam's cut
$49.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceStrategy

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