How much revenue did Alvara make?

$375–$1k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Alvara sell?

Q: How many copies did Alvara sell?

273 to 443 copies, based on its 11 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 273–443; $375–$1k after Steam's cut $681–$2k before Steam's cut; from 11 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alvara and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alvara's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 150k–253k

best case 730k (Wasteland 3)

Games like Alvara

A typical game among these

≈ 150k–253k copies

≈ $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wasteland 3 at ≈ 557k–904k copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 5k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Turn-Based Tactics (7 of 8) and CRPG (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with CRPG + Character Customization, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Sexual Content + Violent; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Wasteland 3 2020	Est. copies ≈ 557k–904k 5.2x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	22k reviews Very Positive	CRPGCharacter Customization
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game 2023	Est. copies ≈ 107k–173k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Turn-BasedTactical RPG
Expeditions: Rome 2022	Est. copies ≈ 169k–274k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.1M–$5.6M after Steam's cut $3.8M–$8.6M before Steam's cut	$44.99	7k reviews Very Positive	RPGStrategy
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children 2020	Est. copies ≈ 246k–399k 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	10k reviews Very Positive	CRPGTactical RPG
Low Magic Age 2017	Est. copies ≈ 121k–197k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $500k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $910k–$2.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Early AccessDungeons & Dragons
Stolen Realm 2024	Est. copies ≈ 98k–160k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $541k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $983k–$2.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based TacticsParty-Based RPG
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022	Est. copies ≈ 188k–305k 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$44.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
The Age of Decadence 2015	Est. copies ≈ 198k–322k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $818k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based CombatChoices Matter