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How many copies did Sparkle 2 Evo sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 127k–207k
$175k–$470k after Steam's cut $318k–$723k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sparkle 2 Evo and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sparkle 2 Evo's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9.9M–12.3M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Sparkle 2 Evo

A typical game among these

≈ 9.9M–12.3M copies

≈ $71.3M–$99.9M after Steam's cut

from ~236k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Sandbox (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (4 of 8) and Moddable (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $12.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
321k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut
$35.00
236k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building

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