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How many copies did Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 179k–291k
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 95k–3.0M
best case 6.7M (Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition)
Games like Broken Sword 5 - the Serpent's Curse

A typical game among these

≈ 95k–3.0M copies

≈ $498k–$5.7M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Automobile Sim (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition at ≈ 5.1M–8.3M copies, ≈ $27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 432 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 58k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Automobile Sim, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
28x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
204k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
PewDiePie: Legend of the Brofist
2015
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$181k–$486k after Steam's cut $329k–$747k before Steam's cut
$7.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
MemesPixel Graphics
Pool 2D - Poolians
2019
Est. copies
≈ 297k–483k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayPool
Rock of Ages
2011
Est. copies
≈ 259k–422k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$713k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyStrategy
FlatOut 2
2006
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingCombat Racing
Cricket 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 44k–71k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$539k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $980k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$44.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSports
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
28x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
205k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Roxy Raccoon's Bowling Bash
2022
Est. copies
≈ 570–927
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$782–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$4.99
23 reviews
Positive
Bowling3D Platformer

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