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How many copies did Stump Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–4k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$24k before Steam's cut
from 106 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Stump Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Stump Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 888k–2.2M
best case 57.1M (Stardew Valley)
Games like Stump Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 888k–2.2M copies

≈ $4.8M–$21.2M after Steam's cut

from ~51k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.5M–70.7M copies, ≈ $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 57k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 73k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Life Sim (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Farming Sim + Pixel Graphics + Relaxing; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2026, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Youtubers Life
2017
Est. copies
≈ 530k–862k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Mostly Positive
ManagementSingleplayer
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
TCG Card Shop Simulator
2026
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.9M–$18.6M after Steam's cut $12.6M–$28.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
51k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Wobbledogs
2022
Est. copies
≈ 381k–620k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.6M after Steam's cut $3.8M–$8.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DogWholesome
MiSide
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.8M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
143k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition
2026
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.9M–$80.5M after Steam's cut $54.4M–$123.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
73k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationFlight
PC Building Simulator
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.4M–$22.5M after Steam's cut $15.2M–$34.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationEducation
Chinese Parents
2018
Est. copies
≈ 823k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Very Positive

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