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How many copies did Secrets of Grindea sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 213k–346k
$879k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Secrets of Grindea and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Secrets of Grindea's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 596k–2.4M
best case 4.1M (MONSTER HUNTER RISE)
Games like Secrets of Grindea

A typical game among these

≈ 596k–2.4M copies

≈ $14.9M–$43.0M after Steam's cut

from ~31k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: MONSTER HUNTER RISE at ≈ 3.2M–5.1M copies, ≈ $34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 12k reviews in their first month; the range was 4k to 31k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RPG (6 of 8) and Anime (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Hunting + Character Customization, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.9M–$45.4M after Steam's cut $30.7M–$69.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
RPGOpen World
CODE VEIN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.0M after Steam's cut $54.1M–$123.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeAnime
Phantasy Star Online 2 New Genesis
2020
Est. copies
≈ 613k–995k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
25k reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayCharacter Customization
SCARLET NEXUS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 452k–734k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.9M–$26.7M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.1M before Steam's cut
$79.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeAction
Tales of Zestiria
2015
Est. copies
≈ 455k–739k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$16.8M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$25.9M before Steam's cut
$49.99
9k reviews
Mostly Positive
JRPGAnime
MONSTER HUNTER RISE
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.1M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
127k reviews
Very Positive
ActionHunting
Tales of ARISE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 912k–1.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.9M before Steam's cut
$49.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeJRPG
GOD EATER 3
2019
Est. copies
≈ 287k–467k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
AnimeAction

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