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How many copies did The Shell Part II: Purgatorio sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 17k–28k
$119k–$320k after Steam's cut $216k–$492k before Steam's cut
from 698 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Shell Part II: Purgatorio and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Shell Part II: Purgatorio's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 155k–304k
best case 349k (No Case Should Remain Unsolved)
Games like The Shell Part II: Purgatorio

A typical game among these

≈ 155k–304k copies

≈ $1.4M–$2.5M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Case Should Remain Unsolved at ≈ 266k–433k copies, ≈ $512k–$1.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 972 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Detective (7 of 8) and Investigation (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Interactive Fiction + Puzzle, priced around $7.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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