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How many copies did Mirage Feathers sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 66k–107k
$91k–$243k after Steam's cut $165k–$374k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mirage Feathers and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mirage Feathers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 928–42k
best case 100k (Gal*Gun 2)
Games like Mirage Feathers

A typical game among these

≈ 928–42k copies

≈ $15k–$712k after Steam's cut

from ~266 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Gal*Gun 2 at ≈ 76k–124k copies, ≈ $629k–$1.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 94.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share On-Rails Shooter (7 of 8) and Anime (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Anime, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rainbow Cotton
2024
Est. copies
≈ 521–846
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before Steam's cut
$19.99
21 reviews
Mixed
ActionCasual
Gal*Gun 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 76k–124k
9.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$629k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
MatureAnime
Strange Ocean
2024
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$204–$551 after Steam's cut $371–$847 before Steam's cut
$5.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
PhysicsIntentionally Awkward Controls
Gal*Gun Returns
2021
Est. copies
≈ 9k–15k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$124k–$333k after Steam's cut $225k–$512k before Steam's cut
$49.99
363 reviews
Very Positive
ShooterOn-Rails Shooter
Banzai Escape
2016
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$13k–$36k after Steam's cut $24k–$56k before Steam's cut
$6.99
168 reviews
Mixed
ActionOn-Rails Shooter
Gal*Gun: Double Peace
2016
Est. copies
≈ 92k–149k
8.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$757k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
On-Rails ShooterAnime
Panzer Girls
2022
Est. copies
≈ 769–1k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
31 reviews
Mixed
CasualOn-Rails Shooter
Gal*Gun VR
2017
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$144k–$386k after Steam's cut $261k–$594k before Steam's cut
$29.99
506 reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentVR

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.