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How many copies did Valiant Hearts: Coming Home sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$57k–$154k after Steam's cut $104k–$237k before Steam's cut
from 561 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Valiant Hearts: Coming Home and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Valiant Hearts: Coming Home's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 356k–826k
best case 1.5M (DDNet)
Games like Valiant Hearts: Coming Home

A typical game among these

≈ 356k–826k copies

≈ $2.4M–$3.9M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: DDNet at ≈ 1.2M–1.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 749 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (7 of 8) and Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2D Platformer + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DDNet
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
47k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpFree to Play
Hue
2016
Est. copies
≈ 474k–770k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
Deepest Sword
2021
Est. copies
≈ 271k–441k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel Graphics2D Platformer
Trine 2: Complete Story
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.6M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
22k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPlatformer
VVVVVV
2010
Est. copies
≈ 667k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$916k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
11k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsPrecision Platformer
Neva
2024
Est. copies
≈ 266k–432k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
AdventurePlatformer
Braid
2009
Est. copies
≈ 629k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
Webbed
2021
Est. copies
≈ 380k–617k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2D PlatformerCute

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.