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How many copies did Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 175k–284k
$720k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.3M–7.4M
best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)
Games like Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry

A typical game among these

≈ 5.3M–7.4M copies

≈ $41.7M–$145.2M after Steam's cut

from ~93k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Stealth (7 of 8) and Assassin (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin’s Creed® IV Black Flag™
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.7M after Steam's cut $39.0M–$88.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
79k reviews
Very Positive
PiratesOpen World
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$73.3M–$197.2M after Steam's cut $133.3M–$303.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
129k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin
Assassin's Creed® Unity
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$39.7M–$106.8M after Steam's cut $72.2M–$164.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
86k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldParkour
Dishonored 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.0M–$61.8M after Steam's cut $41.8M–$95.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
StealthFirst-Person
Dishonored
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.3M after Steam's cut $27.9M–$63.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StealthFirst-Person

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